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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Virginia Commonwealth

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:24.0
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:45



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-824.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Commonwealth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)ASunH80-57W100%0.0
11-13Wichita St. (37.0)MVCH51-53L0%0.0
11-17Winthrop (269.0)BSthA54-90W100%0.0
11-22Memphis (12.0)CUSAN78-65W100%0.0
11-23Duke (1.0)ACCN58-67L0%0.0
11-24Missouri (36.0)SECN68-65L0%0.0
11-28Stetson (220.0)ASunH92-56W100%0.0
12-1Belmont (21.0)OVCH75-65W100%0.0
12-7Old Dominion (318.0)CAAA70-83W100%0.0
12-15Alabama (60.0)SECH73-54W100%0.0
12-18Western Kentucky (150.0)SBH76-44W100%0.0
12-21Longwood (332.0)BSthH93-56W100%0.0
12-29Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)NECH96-67W100%0.0
1-2East Tennessee St. (275.0)ASunA58-109W100%0.0
1-5Lehigh (107.0)PatH59-55W100%0.0
1-9Dayton (114.0)A10H74-62W100%0.0
1-12St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A65-72W100%0.0
1-17Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H92-86W100%0.0
1-19Duquesne (229.0)A10A63-90W100%0.0
1-24Richmond (92.0)A10A86-74L0%0.0
1-26La Salle (46.0)A10H61-69L0%0.0
1-30Rhode Island (201.0)A10A64-70W100%0.0
2-2Fordham (228.0)A10H81-65W100%0.0
2-9Charlotte (68.0)A10A61-68W100%0.0
2-14Massachusetts (57.0)A10H86-68W100%0.0
2-16George Washington (147.0)A10H84-57W100%0.0
2-19St. Louis (15.0)A10A76-62L0%0.0
2-23Xavier (87.0)A10A71-75W100%0.0
3-2Butler (22.0)A10H84-52W100%0.0
3-6Richmond (92.0)A10H93-82W100%0.0
3-10Temple (42.0)A10A84-76L0%0.0
3-15Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10N82-79W100%0.0
3-16Massachusetts (57.0)A10N71-62W100%0.0
3-17St. Louis (15.0)A10N62-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Commonwealth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Commonwealth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Commonwealth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia CommonwealthA1025.9825.9875.3275.3213.1613.16
MassachusettsA103.423.4270.0070.001.371.37
RichmondA103.413.4156.6756.670.460.46
St. LouisA103.413.4180.6580.652.092.09
Saint Joseph'sA103.393.3962.0762.070.820.82
ButlerA102.062.0678.1278.121.161.16
XavierA102.032.0356.6756.670.270.27
CharlotteA102.012.0167.7467.740.710.71
TempleA101.991.9970.9770.970.830.83
FordhamA101.971.9723.3323.33-1.05-1.05
George WashingtonA101.961.9644.8344.83-0.20-0.20
DaytonA101.961.9656.6756.670.260.26
La SalleA101.941.9468.9768.970.740.74
Rhode IslandA101.941.9428.5728.57-0.83-0.83
DuquesneA101.921.9227.5927.59-0.86-0.86
St. BonaventureA101.921.9250.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
East Tennessee St.ASun1.591.5930.0030.00-0.64-0.64
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.541.5423.3323.33-0.82-0.82
LongwoodBSth1.521.5220.0020.00-0.91-0.91
LehighPat1.521.5271.4371.430.650.65
AlabamaSEC1.521.5264.5264.520.440.44
DukeACC1.521.5283.8783.871.031.03
Old DominionCAA1.521.5217.2417.24-0.99-0.99
MemphisCUSA1.491.4990.9190.911.221.22
WinthropBSth1.491.4940.7440.74-0.28-0.28
MissouriSEC1.491.4968.7568.750.560.56
BelmontOVC1.471.4782.7682.760.960.96
Western KentuckySB1.471.4757.5857.580.220.22
Wichita St.MVC1.471.4775.7675.760.760.76
Charleston SouthernBSth0.220.2257.1457.140.030.03
LipscombASun0.210.2137.9337.93-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.190.1958.8258.820.030.03
OhioMAC0.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
MercerASun0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
North FloridaASun0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
South Carolina UpstateASun0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
NortheasternCAA0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1710.0010.00-0.13-0.13
Virginia Military InstBSth0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
AuburnSEC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
KansasB120.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
MississippiSEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
CreightonMVC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
NC AshevilleBSth0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
George MasonCAA0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Central FloridaCUSA0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
North TexasSB0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Florida InternationalSB0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1153.8553.850.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
LafayettePat0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
AmericanPat0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Georgia St.CAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
WoffordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
DavidsonSC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0928.0028.00-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
CampbellBSth0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
PittsburghBE0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
CornellIvy0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameBE0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0614.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0413.7913.79-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
WashingtonP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
IUPUISum0.040.0413.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
TroySB0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RutgersBE0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PacificBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
OaklandSum0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00